Run, Run, Pass, Pink Slip; The End of MartyBall

So Marty Schottenheimer was fired yesterday. Well, it was obviously going to happen sooner or later, right? I mean, it seems like my entire life every sportscaster and sports analyst I have ever heard speak has had one thing to say about Marty: “He can't win in the playoffs”. Never mind the fact that in order to lose 13 playoff games a coach has to first get to the playoffs 13 times, a feat that only two other NFL coaches have ever been able to match. (Don Shula and Tom Landry) It has been well documented that Marty's career playoff record stands at a disappointing 5-13. It has not been nearly as well documented however, how exactly Marty lost those games. So I decided to do a little digging and find out for myself: how exactly did Marty lose 13 times?

After looking through the annals of NFL playoff history (also known as pro-football-reference.com), one major commonality stood out from among Marty's losses with the Browns, Chiefs, and Chargers: Marty's teams were beaten by teams with better QBs, and in most cases by vastly better QBs. To break it down a little further, Marty has lost playoff games to Dan Marino three times, John Elway three times, Jim Kelly twice, Warren Moon once, and Tom Brady once. That is 10 losses to Hall of Famers. (Yes I am counting Brady as a HOFer...you disagree?) And whom, might you ask, did Marty have going for him under center in these games? Well, since I thought you might ask, here is a list of the QB match ups in all 13 of Marty's losses:

Bernie Kosar at Dan Marino
Bernie Kosar vs. John Elway
Bernie Kosar at John Elway
Bernie Kosar vs. Warren Moon
Steve Deberg at Dan Marino
Steve Deberg at Jim Kelly
Dave Krieg at Stan Humphries
Joe Montana at Jim Kelly
Joe Montana at Dan Marino
Steve Bono vs. Jim Harbaugh
Elvis Grbac vs. John Elway
Drew Brees vs. Chad Pennington
Phillip Rivers vs. Tom Brady

To further compound this point, of the three non HOF quarterbacks that Marty lost to, two of them (Humphries and Harbaugh) had the best year of their careers the year they beat Marty, both making their sole Pro Bowl appearance that same year. Now, the other thing you might notice looking at the list of quarterbacks is that Marty's were not exactly the cream of the crop. Montana was on the downswing of his career when he joined Marty in Kansas City, and with even a depleted Montana Marty was able to go 2-2 in the playoffs with Joe at the helm. The rest of the list includes the overwhelmingly average (Kosar and Grbac), the good but young (Brees and Rivers), and the downright forgettable (Bono, Krieg, and Deberg). Now, let me riddle you this my dear reader. How many coaches do you think would have won those 13 games with those matchups? Especially after the emphasis that has been placed, particularly in this past post season, on needing a talented and experienced QB to win in the playoffs.

The other major trait that stands out in Marty's losses is the margin of the games. Nine of the thirteen losses were by less than seven points. This of course, is where the chorus of sports pundits will begin to sing you to sleep with a steady chorus of “Martyball baby, just run the rock, if we are up, just run out the clock”. Granted, it is a staple of Schottenheimer coached teams to run the ball on first and second down with the lead, and then to throw on third down. Run, run, pass, punt, repeat. But is this any different than the common NFL coaching strategy? Would any other NFL coach this side of Mike Martz NOT run the ball with the lead? And after seeing exactly what Marty had at QB in his playoff runs, would you as a coach trust your hopes to the likes of Kosar, Grbac, and Bono? Perhaps it was not Marty's strategy that was to blame, but rather quarterbacks that he had that were incapable of converting pass plays on third down. In addition, in three of the losses Marty's kicker missed a FG late in the fourth or OT that would have won or tied the game. (Nate Kaeding's 54 yarder against the Pats this past postseason to tie in the 4th, Kaeding's 40 yarder two years ago to win in OT against the Jets, and Nick Lowery's 52 yarder to win against the Dolphins in 1990) Also to remember from the most recent loss to New England was Marlon McCree's fumbled interception on fourth down late in the fourth quarter, followed four plays later by the Patriot's game winning touchdown. No reasonable person can blame Marty for McCree's blunder, or for his kickers missing clutch kicks. Those types of things are out of a coach's hands.

I suppose this all goes to say that you shouldn't always take every stat you hear bandied about entirely at face value. Yes, Schottenheimer has only won 28% of his post season games as a head coach. He has also however, won 61% of his regular season contests and taken 13 different teams to the playoffs. I would prefer to have a coach with that record, who has lost close playoff games throughout his career to some of the greatest quarterbacks of our generation, to some hot commodity coordinator or rising college coaching star. If Marty was ever paired with an elite signal caller, I would dare say that he would break his post season curse. It's a shame Marty won't get that opportunity in San Diego, where Philip Rivers seems to be only a year or two of maturation away from being the stud QB in his prime that Marty has been missing his entire coaching career.