We all know that the AL MVP race is down to Magglio and A-Rod. What about the NL race? Some people (Including USA Today, The Denver Post, and the guys at Epic Carnival) have been talking up Matt Holliday recently. Why so much love for Holliday? For one thing, there is no other consensus favorite. Injuries and slumps have take a number of perrenial NL stars out of the running for the MVP award. Let's take a look at Holliday's MVP resume (NL rank in parenthesis):
Holliday:BA: .338 (2nd)
HR: 21 (14th)
RBI: 95 (3rd)
Team: 62-58 (3rd in NL West)
Holliday's numbers are impressive. He is both hitting for average and driving in runs at an elite rate. There are a number of factors however, that are going to keep him from ever coming close to the NL MVP:
The Coor's Bias: Anyone that has been a baseball fan in the past decade knows that Coor's Field turns good hitters into great hitters. It's a proven fact, and whether it is fair to Holliday or not his numbers this year are going to be viewed by many as being Coor's inflated. The obvious question then, is whether or not his numbers are indeed inflated. Here is a look at Holliday's home and away splits this season:
Home: .378, 15 HR, 55 RBI
Away: .298, 6 HR, 38 RBI
As you can see, there is a huge gap between Holliday's home and away numbers. The Coor's bias has set in among MVP voters ever since Larry Walker won the 1997 award. Don't believe me? Take a look at Todd Helton's line in 2000, when the Rockies went 82-80 overall and 34-47 on the road:
Helton: .372 (1st), 42 HR (7th), 147 RBI (1st)
Helton came within 8 homers of the triple crown that year for a team with a winning record. Where did he finish in the MVP balloting? 5th. If a near triple crown year for a winning team couldn't win Helton an MVP, Holliday has no chance at all.
Playoff Bias: As it stands right now Holliday and the Rockies stand 6 games out of the NL West lead and 3 games out of the NL Wild Card. If you took a straw poll, most people would say that the Rockies will be sitting out the playoffs this year. So how does that impact Holliday's MVP chances? In the past decade 15 of the 20 MVPs have come from playoff teams. The five players to accomplish that feat were Ryan Howard, Larry Walker, A-Rod, and Barry Bonds twice. That is pretty elite company, company with which Holliday does not seem to fit.
Homer Bias: The one downside of Holliday's numbers is his somewhat lackluster home run total (for an MVP candidate). Holliday currently stands 14th in the NL in HR and is on pace to hit 29 for the season. In the past 15 years only 3 of the 30 MVPs have had fewer than 30 homers; Ichiro, Barry Larkin, and Dennis Eckersly. They say that chicks dig the long ball, but it might be true that MVP voters dig it even more.
Now take a look at all three of those biases together. If Holliday were to win the MVP as a Rockie, on a non playoff team, while hitting fewer than 30 HR it would not only be suprising it would be historically significant. (The last player to be named MVP from a non-playoff team while hitting under 30 HR was Robin Yount in 1989) I'd say the smart money right now on NL MVP would be on Ryan Howard, Jake Peavy, and whoever makes the playoffs between Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder.
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