The Cleveland Browns have reached contract agreements with two of their top three picks, including third overall pick Joe Thomas. The lone holdout? Brady Quinn of course. Quinn and the Browns find themselves in an odd position. On one hand, the Browns believe that Brady was one of the top players from this year's draft, and that he could possibly be thier quarterback for the next decade so it would figure that they would give him a big contract. On the other hand, Quinn wasn't one of the top players selected in the draft after falling to #22, and as such it would figure that he shouldn't get top ten type money.
The good thing for the Browns in this situation is that even though Quinn's situation is unusual, it is not unique.
Nearly the same exact situation occured just two years ago with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Rodgers, like Quinn, had been universally projected to go in the first ten picks of the draft only to fall into the twenties. As such, Rodgers' contract with the Packers is a good starting point in attempting to figure out what Quinn's deal should look like.
Rodgers signed a deal with the Packers for five years and $7.7 million, with $5.4 million in guarantees. The contract also contains escalators and incentives, mainly based on Rodgers ability to become the Packers' starter, that could push the total value of the contract to $24.52 million.
Quinn does have a few factors in his favor that would aid in being able to negotiate a larger deal than Rodgers. For one thing, he was selected two spots higher. He also has both a better pedigree than Rodgers did coming out of college, as well as greater marketing potential for the Browns. The league salary cap has alos gone up in the past two years. Given all of these factors, how much more should Brady expect?
First off, he should get higher base compensation so move that $7.7 million to something more like $8.5 million. Then take the guaranteed money and move it from $5.4 million to the $7 million range. Next take the total possible value of the contract after incentives and escalators and move it from $24.52 million to about $28 million.
What makes this situation so contentious and potentially prolonged however, is the fact that Brady and his agent think Brady should get top ten money. Quinn's agent is Tom Condon, who just happens to represent Matt Leinart. Leinart was selected 10th in last year's darft, and also had the distinction of being the longest holdout of any draft pick from last year.
If Quinn and his agent think he should be paid more like Leinart, let's take a peek at the deal Leinart signed with the Cardinals. Leinart's deal was for six years and a total possible value of $50.8 million, with $14 million guaranteed. Compare those numbers to the contract I proposed above based upon Brady's draft position and history, and you can see that there is about a $7 million gap in guaranteed money and over $20 million difference in total value.
Any advantage the Browns gained in selecting Quinn at the #22 spot would be completely mitigated if they were to go much higher than the $30 million deal proposed above. So how is this situation going to play out? If I had to guess, I'd say that Browns fans should be prepared for a long holdout followed by a year of Charlie Frye or Derek Anderson behind center.
