"And if you win you get this shiny fiddle made of gold
But if you lose the devil gets your soul"
-Charlie Daniel's Band, The Devil Went Down to Georgia
Oh how sweet the allure of a golden ring can be. So sweet, that some sports franchises have in recent years ignored all salary implications in pursuit of that one elusive championship ring. See the Lakers at the end of Shaq's tenure, bringing in Karl Malone and Gary Payton. See the Colorado Avalanche in the past three years or so. See the Patriots this upcoming year. As Isaiah Thomas can surely tell you, such high priced pursuits do not always end in success. Sometimes however, they do, as was the case with the Heat last season, when bolstered by contributions from the aging and overpaid quartet of Alonzo Mourning, Gary Payton, Antoine Walker, and Jason Williams the Heat were able to win the championship that Shaq had promised the city of Miami when he had arrived. While this victory still lingers in the air however, a different strain is beginning to be heard on South Beach, and it is starting to become clear that it is now time for the Heat to pay the piper for the roster choices that won them the championship.
If you saw any of the Heat's first round series against the Bulls, what I am about to say should be obvious. The Heat are a flawed team in their present incarnation. They are slow. They are old. They are completely reliant on Dwayne Wade. Now, the scary part is that these three problems do not look to be remedied anytime soon, and in fact look to get worse. For the reasoning behind that, take a look at what Sam Smith wrote today in the Chicago Tribune:
"Riley may not return despite previous comments to the contrary. Jones, Gary Payton and Alonzo Mourning are expected to retire. The Heat likely won't sign Jason Kapono or James Posey, perhaps both. It will try to deal Jason Williams, entering his final contract season, and Antoine Walker."
If Smith's analysis is correct, it would seem that the Heat would barely be able to field a full team, much less improve on this season's lackluster result. To whit, this is what the Heat look like going into the off season, as far as players under contract for next season:
Shaquille O'Neal
Udonis Haslem
Dwayne Wade
Michael Doleac
Dorell Wright
Wayne Simien
Jason Williams
Antoine Walker
Alonzo Mourning
Yup, that is the long and short of it. 9 players, and if Smith's analysis is correct, only 6 will actually still be on the roster if Mourning retires and Williams and Walker are dealt. If that holds true, the Heat would be looking at fielding a starting lineup of Shaq, Udonis, Wright, Simien, and Wade. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
The roster noted above will certainly be expanded, but to what extent will be interesting to observe. The Heat will likely keep one or both of Jason Kapono or James Posey, but the price to re-sign Kapono will be significantly higher than his current deal. The Heat will be drafting at #20 in the first round, and even with the depth of this season's draft it is hard to believe they will be able to get a player that has more than a marginal impact next season. (Currently projected in that area of the draft are players like Alando Tucker, Aaron Afflalo, Aaron Gray, and Josh McRoberts) In terms of the salary cap, the 9 contracts the Heat already have for next season come in at roughly $64.5 million, already well over any projected cap for next year. The scariest thing for the Heat though, is that they are at risk of being left off of the next wave in the NBA. Teams are now moving to smaller and quicker teams that have the depth and versatility to throw out a variety of looks any given night. See Shawn Marion and Boris Diaw playing in the frontcourt for Phoenix. See Mikael Pietrus playing center for the Warriors. See the versatility the Raptors and Mavs have on their benches. And you don't even have to tell Miami about the Bulls. They saw first hand how the Bulls were able to use fast three guard lineups and combinations of Chris Duhon, Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, and Luol Deng to entirely out pace the Jurassic Park style Miami team.
So the Heat are already headed into next season over the cap, with a very significant number of holes to fill. It would seem that their best options would be to convince some veterans looking for a championship to take a pay cut, thinking that teaming with Shaq and D-Wade would be their best option to get a ring. We have already seen how that can play out though...
If you want a prediction for how the Heat are going to be next year, here it is. Shaq is going to have to show up for the entire season if this team is going to have a chance, but now that the big man is showing his age there is no guarantee that he will be able to lift the team even if the desire is there. They will desperately need D-Wade to come back at full strength from his off-season shoulder surgery, or they will be sunk. And they also need to get much younger and much faster in the summer, or they are going to be left in the dust as the ever maturing speed teams in the East (Toronto, Chicago, Washington, etc.) pass them by. Worst of all, I believe the Heat are probably going to be left behind by their own coach, as Riley seems very unlikely to stick around with a team that could look to fall from fourth in the East to something more along the lines of sixth or seventh next season. At least the Heat have a ring though. But at what cost is the question.
