As this off season has shown, every action in the NFL has an equal and opposite reaction. Some teams however, have been a bit slow on the reaction bit of the equation. Green Bay lost their starter Ahman Green to the Texans early in free agency, and as of yet they have not made any moves in free agency to find a replacement. As it stands right now, the Packers RB corps going into the season looks to consist of Vernand Morency, Noah Herron, and Brandon Miree. All three backs only have two years in the league Morency was acquired in a trade with the Texans that sent Samkon Gado to Houston. At the time this deal made sense, since Morency's greater quickness and receiving ability made him a better compliment to Ahman Green than the tough and powerful Gado. In retrospect, that move signaled that the Packers believed they were going to be able to re-sign Green, and had positioned Morency as their backup and 3rd down back for the foreseeable future. It would seem that the Packers (nor the rest of the league for that matter) were prepared for the type of money that the Texans threw at Green. Who can blame them though? Matching the Texans offer would not have been financially responsible for the Pack. The loss of Green does put them in an awkward position however, as Gado would have been much better equipped to take a season's worth of pounding between the tackles than the 5-9 Morency.
Just as the Packers found themselves with their pants around their ankles after the free agency period began, the Titans saw their 1,200 yard rusher from last season Travis Henry bolt to the Broncos. (By the way, I am the only person that thinks Henry is going to absolutely BLOW UP in Denver? I mean, the man is only 28 and has three seasons in his career over 1,200 yards. I am going to snap him up in every one of my fantasy leagues and ride his 1,400 yards and 13 TDs all the way to the bank.) The loss of Henry and the team's inability to resign the disgruntled Chris Brown leave the Titans with only LenDale White and Ahmard Hall on their roster. Yes. The Titans are looking at going into the season with 260 lb slob LenDale White as their feature back. Ewwwwwww. If I was Jeff Fischer, I would start to be getting very worried right now. And not just that LenDale was going to mistake me for a cheeseburger. Fischer's job could be on the line if the Titans are not able to get a back to take the pressure off of Vince Young. As little as they seemed to value his services, Travis Henry's 270 carries last year were an essential part of the Titan's running game, one that is not easily replaced.
Now, the third team seemingly floating in the running back abyss did it to themselves. The Bills shipped Willis McGahee to the Ravens for two 3rd rounders and a 7th rounder. Honestly, the trade was understandable considering the Bills were not likely to resign Willis after his contract ran out after the season, and acted upon an opportunity to extract some value from him. The loss of McGahee has left the Bills perilously thin in the backfield however, only featuring Anthony Thomas and Shaud Williams in the RB rotation. While Thomas has been a feature back in the past, his best years are far behind him and he does not seem fit to be anything more than a pinch hitter in a running back rotation. The fact that the Bills willingly traded Willis would lead you to believe that they have a plan in mind to replace him. Wouldn't it?
Now on to the fun part of this game. How exactly are these three teams going to fix their running back problems before the start of the season? The options in front of them are clear: raid the remaining free agent corpses, trade for someone's backup, or put their hopes in the draft. First, lets take a gander at what remains of the free agent crop. There are some underachievers that have not lived up to early promise (Kevan Barlow, Derrick Blaylock, and Chris Brown), some vets without much tread left on the tire (Corey Dillon and Stephen Davis), and some young relative unknowns in terms of potential (Reno Mahe, Verron Hayes, and Tony Fisher). Of this group there does not seem to be anyone that could step in and be a feature back this season. Chris Brown would seem the most likely, but he has gotten a reputation recently of being a malcontent. Barlow and Dillon could be quality additions to a team as pieces of a larger rotation, but neither has shown themselves to be able to take the reins of a rushing attack in this stage of their careers. There is also the case of Domanick (Davis) Williams, who was released by the Texans at the same time that they released David Carr. Williams was an intriguing double threat for the Texans in his first three seasons, averaging 112 yards of total offense per game. Knee injuries have plagued him however, and he sat out the entirety of last season. If Williams were able to regain anything close to his pre-injury form he might be the only one of the available free agents that could step in and take over running back duties in a dynamic fashion. That however, is a big if. Nonetheless, taking a flyer on Williams would not be a bad move for any of the above teams.
Since the answer to the running back quandary does not seem to lie in the free agent pool, now it is time to examine what might be available to our desperate trio on the trade market. As stated previously, there are a number of teams in the league that have two running backs that are of starting caliber or potential. Few of those teams however, seem willing to part with their prized insurance policies. The Redskins have Ladell Betts locked up to a long term deal, and teams such as Atlanta and Jacksonville are not going to give up their young backups considering the age of their current starters. That leaves our terrible trio with very few options on the trade market...except for one golden calf, sitting on the California beach. The Chargers have tendered an offer to their backup Michael Turner that would cause any team attempting to sign him to give the Chargers 1st and 3rd round picks. As much potential as Turner has shown (Remember that 80 yard TD against the Colts?) any team would be extremely reticent to shell out that kind of compensation for a player that has not proven he can take a season's worth or carries up to this point. This does not mean that Turner is not an option. San Diego finds themselves in much the same position that the Bills found themselves with McGahee, namely that they know they are not going to be able to re-sign Turner after this season and it might be wisest to get something for him now. The Chargers still have the option of working a sign and trade deal for Turner, and considering the somewhat desperate state that the Packers, Titans, and Bills find themselves in, it would not be surprising if a deal was consummated for less than the 1st and 3rd compensation. (The Bills do have an extra 3rd rounder this year from the McGahee deal. Would that be enough?)
Thus far it would seem that the only solution available on the veteran market would be Turner, with perhaps Dillon in a platoon situation coming second. This of course, leads us into the great unknown, namely to the draft. For starters, there seems to only be one prospect that would no doubt be able to step in and start next year: Adrian Peterson. He is an absolute stud, possessing the kind of combination of size, speed, and instincts that any team would crave. Beyond Peterson only Marshawn Lynch has established himself as a sure first round pick. Lynch is a tough runner who could probably contribute in his rookie season if coupled with a complimentary back to share the rushing responsibilities. The wild card though, is Louisville product Michael Bush. Take away his broken leg from last season, and he is a lock for the top 15. Bush is a hulking back with good speed, and showed an ability to catch a few out of the backfield. He also has good football instincts, considering the fact that in his high school days he was considered the second best QUARTERBACK in the state of Kentucky next to Brian Brohm. Where he lands depends on team's perception of his leg injury, but Bush has the potential to be an eventual starter in the NFL, sooner rather than later. Now, looking at the three RBless teams, Buffalo has the 12th pick, Green Bay the 16th, and Tennessee the 19th. Ideally one of these teams would pick up Peterson and another would pick up Lynch, but that may well be out of their hands at this point. In fact, the entire solution to these three team's RB problem lies squarely in the hands of...Phil Savage. Who? The Browns GM, that is who. With the third pick in the draft the Browns have seemingly two options. Either they can take Brady Quinn to replace the ineffective Charlie Frye, or they can take Peterson since Jamal Lewis only seems to be a stopgap solution at RB this season. If Cleveland does not take Peterson he could go on a needs based nose dive much like Aaron Rodgers did two drafts ago. The teams drafting between Cleveland and Buffalo are Tampa (Cadillac), Arizona (Edge), Washington (Portis and Betts), Minnesota (Chester Taylor), Atlanta (Dunn and Norwood), Miami (Ronnie Brown), Houston (Ahman Green), and San Fran (Frank Gore). Every single one of those teams has a recently acquired back with a long term deal. Translation: They are most probably not going to touch Peterson with a 10 foot pole. Now, what this should mean for Cleveland is that if they really have their mind set on Peterson they should trade down to a team like the Redskins or Falcons that has expressed interest in Calvin Johnson, and then still grab Peterson plus additional picks. The Browns aren't that smart though, and to be honest I do not seem them passing on Quinn if he is available.
Assuming the Browns do not take Peterson, a number of things could happen. Green Bay could try to trade up ahead of Buffalo to get Peterson, leaving the Bills with Lynch, or the Packers could stand pat and take Lynch themselves at 16. Staying put would of course leave the Packers open to having the Titans jump ahead of them for Lynch. So how is this all going to play out? I think in the end the Packers are going to get Lynch and pair him with Morency to create a nice contrasting duo. The Bills will get Peterson, and give him the lion's share of the carries in his first season. Ahh yes, the Titans. I had almost forgotten about them in all of this. They seem most likely to acquire a vet (especially since drafting a back would be throwing last year's mistake on LenDale back in their face), either Dillon or Turner through a trade. I don't see San Diego blowing the opportunity to extract value out of Turner, so look for the Titans to make a sign and trade deal for him leading up to the draft. And there my friends, are how the final three horses on this carousel are going to be filled.
