Russell or Johnson? Value or Need?

If there is one thing that has been ticking me off more than anything in the days leading up to the NFL draft it has been this general sentiment: The Raiders should take JaMarcus Russell, because Calvin Johnson would be useless if the Raiders do not have a QB to get him the ball. The same people who espouse this opinion are then quick to point out that the Raiders have Randy Moss, Jerry Porter, and Ronald Curry to throw the ball to. While this reasoning is not without merit, it is the same type of thinking that led to the Texan's selection of Mario Williams last year. To wit, the Texans had a decent QB in David Carr that they had just signed to an extension, so it was illogical to select Vince Young. Likewise, the team had a, at the time, slightly above average back in Domanick (Davis) Williams, therefore lessening the need for selecting Reggie Bush. So obviously the correct choice was to select a prospect in Mario Williams that had less game breaking talent than either Young or Bush, but that had performed exceedingly well in pre draft tests and played a position of more perceived need for the Texans. So...the Raiders are poised to follow in that same vein, selecting a player that EVERY general manager in the league would say is less talented than Johnson, that has wowed scouts in pre draft tests and plays a position of more perceived need. And this makes sense?

The debate between whether the Raiders should select Russell or Johnson rests upon a fundamental divide in the NFL in terms of draft philosophy, the divide between need and value. Russell would indeed be the correct need pick. Johnson would be the correct value pick. The question remains then, which of the two approaches to the draft is correct in this situation? To answer, lets examine what the future might hold for the Raiders in each scenario, Russell or Johnson.

The Raiders were starting Andrew Walter at QB last season. Let that sink in for just a moment. Walter would be a third stringer at best for most any other NFL team. Go ahead, play a little game with it, name the backup QBs in the league that you would not put in before Andrew Walter. Done? So, QB is obviously a tremendous position of need for the Raiders, to the point where I would not pick them to win more than 3 games this season if they go into it with Walter at QB. The Raiders are thus presented with three options in fixing their QB situation, whether that be by the draft, trade, or the remaining free agent pool. The obvious free agent solutions are gone, as Jeff Garcia, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, and Brad Johnson have all already signed elsewhere. This leaves the remaining QB crop to consist of...Tim Rattay? Ewwww. To put it bluntly, the Raiders missed the boat in free agency this year. Even if they have been determined all spring to take a QB with the first pick, their lack of activity has put them in a position to throw that QB to the wolves behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. We've seen how that has worked out for David Carr. And Joey Harrington. And Eli Manning for that matter. Whoever the Raiders put behind center this year is going to get rocked. Period. The Raiders have done nothing substantive to improve an offensive line that surrendered 72 sacks last season. So you want to throw a rookie QB behind that line? A rookie that at his most recent workout showed the ability to throw the ball a million yards from off his butt, while also showcasing an alarming inability to consistently throw an accurate 12 yard out pattern? A QB that nearly lost his starting job at LSU to Ryan Perrilloux before this season? Come on, you have to be kidding me. If Russell goes to the Raiders, he is going to get the same shell shock welcome to the NFL that Carr received in Houston. Except it will be worse, because Russell is not as good of a QB as Carr. Yup, I said it. I am extremely wary of Russell, especially since his agent is trying to pub him using the same sort of stupid human tricks with arm strength that fooled the Ravens into blowing a first round pick on Kyle Boller. While Russell, Mike Vick, and heck, even Michael Bishop have the ability to throw a football 50,60, or 70 yards off of one foot, while on the run, juggling stuffed teddy bears, eating a moon pie, how many times is that kind of throw going to be required in an average NFL game? Now ask yourself, how many times is a 12 yard out going to need to be thrown? In my view the Raiders should solve their QB problem in one of two ways. There are still a number of decent QBs available on the trade market for the right price, the likes of Trent Green, Josh McCown, and Seneca Walace, QBs who have seen NFL defenses before and would be better suited to step in as the Raider's starter for a season or two. Russell is a raw QB that needs time to adapt to the speed of the NFL game and polish his accuracy on medium passes and throws to the sidelines. Letting him sit for a year or two, which is what he needs, is not an option the Raiders would be able to afford him, which is why they should look elsewhere and let Russell go. Make a trade for one of the above players, and then maybe take Trent Edwards, Drew Stanton, Kevin Kolb, or Troy Smith to develop with a 2nd-4th round selection.

Here is the rub. Russell is not the best QB prospect to come along in a long time. Coming out of college, I would say that in recent years Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, and grief, Brady Quinn were all better and more pro ready prospects than Russell. Now, name a WR in recent drafts that was anywhere near Calvin Johnson coming into the pros. Done thinking? The last prospect that came into the league with Johnson's combination of size, speed, hands, and route running ability was in 1998, when Randy Moss hit the league. The difference being, Johnson does not have any of the character questions that Moss did coming out of Marshall. Johnson is a once in a decade type of talent at the WR position. Russell is a flavor of the month that nobody had on their draft radar before this past season. Johnson was ripping through the ACC last fall, stringing together 100 yard games while getting the rock from....Reggie Ball? If any of you watched a Georgia Tech game last year you would understand how unearthly bad Reggie Ball is, while at the same time realizing how insanely good Calvin Johnson is. To put it in perspective, Reggie Ball threw over 300 passes in all four of his seasons at GT. In all three seasons that he had Calvin Johnson with him, he completed less than 50% of his passes. So you are trying to tell me that Calvin Johnson can't impact a game while playing with a bad QB? That he could not make an impact with the Raiders while getting the ball from a QB the likes of Trent Green or Josh McCown? Come on.

The real trick of this situation is that the Raiders are going to be bad this year no mater what they do. The offense is going to remain bad next season no matter what the Raiders do in the draft, because the Raiders do not have a good line, have no real feature RB, and have an aging pair of WRs in Moss and Porter. So the Raiders are going to find themselves back in the top 10 of the draft next year. That is a lock. Write it down, take it to the bank, spit on my face if it does not end up being true. So the Raiders need to avoid putting themselves in the situation where the Vikings, Redskins, and Lions find themselves this season, where past draft mistakes are hindering them from making the best pick. How so? The Vikings traded up last year for Tarvaris Jackson, and therefore are not going to take Brady Quinn, even if he is sitting there at the 7 pick. Likewise, the Redskins would also pass on Quinn because of their reach on Jason Campbell. And the Lions of course are scared out of their minds of taking Calvin Johnson, since they are already millions in the hole on draft mistakes Charles Rogers and Mike Williams. So lets look ahead to next season. At the top of the QB draft chart are prospects such as Brian Brohm, Chad Henne and John David Booty. So if the Raiders just hold out for a season, they can have Calvin Johnson, plus perhaps Brohm (who is better than Russell), Henne (also better than Russell), or Booty to throw the ball to him, or even a free agent QB. The other option is to have Russell plus....Limas Sweed? Point being, taking Russell ties him to the team like an anchor for the next 5 years. If I were piloting that ship, I would much rather tie my hopes to Calvin Johnson.