The Yankees held a pre game meeting today before they went out and faced the Blue Jays. Apparently it was not enough to inspire them to the win, as they fell 7-2. The talk by the Yankees seemed upbeat however, as is witnessed by these snippets from the SI wrap up on the game:
"In the end, all the guys in here believe that we can make the playoffs," outfielder Johnny Damon said. "When we start walking around with our heads down, that's when we need to start worrying. We know we have an uphill climb, there's no question about it, but there's no quit. We're going to battle. Hopefully, in the end, there's going to be a nice prize."
"I believe in the talent on this ballclub," Torre said. "We're digging ourselves a big hole and we've got to find a way to climb out of it. That's basically my mind-set right now."
Despite the optimism of Damon and Torre, it is getting to be high time to ask the obvious question: Is there a way for the Yankees to climb out of this hole? Yankees fans would note that both Roger Clemens and Phil Hughes will join the rotation soon, theoretically replacing Matt DeSalvo and Tyler Clippard. Those moves would leave the Yankees rotation in the following shape:
Wang
Pettitte
Clemens
Mussina
Hughes
Is that, combined with Clippard and DeSalvo then helping out a bullpen that ranks 20th in ERA, enough to get the Yankees to the Wild Card? To be able to answer that question, you need to figure out what record the Yankees would have to end up with to get into the playoffs. The past 6 seasons the AL Wild Card has gone to a team that had at least 95 wins. Detroit, the current Wild Card leader, is on pace for 94 wins so 95 wins looks like a good starting point. The Yankees currently stand at 21-28. In order for them to reach the 95 wins that will likely be necessary to reach the playoffs they would have to go 74-39 the rest of the season, a .655 winning percentage. For context, that pace over a full season would yield 106 wins and is a higher winning percentage than any team other than the Red Sox is playing at this season. So do Hughes and Clemens suddenly make the Yankees a 106 win caliber squad? I don't think so.
